dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jordan Akins targets

Jordan Akins: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · FA · NFL · baseline 3.6/game (2024, 16 games)
3.1
Median
0.8-7.0
80% range
1.6-5.5
50% range
8.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.83.17.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+87%
2.0+68%
3.0+52%
4.0+39%
5.0+30%
6.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jordan Akins player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts