dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Luke Musgrave targets

Luke Musgrave: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · GB · NFL · baseline 2.4/game (2025, 13 games)
2.0
Median
0.9-4.8
80% range
1.2-3.2
50% range
5.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.92.04.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+85%
2.0+50%
3.0+29%
4.0+15%
5.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Luke Musgrave player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts