dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Luke Musgrave receiving yards

Luke Musgrave: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

TE · GB · NFL · baseline 19/game (2025, 13 games)
15
Median
2-45
80% range
6-28
50% range
54
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

21545
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
10+62%
20+37%
30+23%
40+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 887 TE receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 83.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Luke Musgrave player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts