dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Dalton Kincaid receptions

Dalton Kincaid: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · BUF · NFL · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 12 games)
3.0
Median
0.7-6.5
80% range
1.7-4.3
50% range
7.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.73.06.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+87%
2.0+68%
3.0+49%
4.0+29%
5.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Dalton Kincaid player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts