dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Patrick Taylor rushing yards

Patrick Taylor: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · SF · NFL · baseline 26/game (2024, 7 games)
21
Median
1-63
80% range
8-38
50% range
74
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

12163
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
10+69%
20+52%
30+36%
40+23%
50+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 977 RB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Patrick Taylor player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts