dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Darnell Mooney targets

Darnell Mooney: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · NYG · NFL · baseline 4.8/game (2025, 15 games)
4.3
Median
1.3-8.7
80% range
2.7-6.6
50% range
10.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.34.38.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+83%
4.0+55%
6.0+31%
8.0+14%
10.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Darnell Mooney player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts