dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jahmyr Gibbs targets

Jahmyr Gibbs: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Jahmyr Gibbs targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

RB · DET · NFL · baseline 5.5/game (2025, 17 games)

5.1

Median

2.7-9.1

80% range

3.8-7.0

50% range

10.1

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
2.0+	94%
4.0+	72%
6.0+	38%
8.0+	16%
10.0+	5%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Jahmyr Gibbs player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts