dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Justice Hill targets

Justice Hill: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Justice Hill targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

RB · BAL · NFL · baseline 2.7/game (2025, 10 games)

2.2

Median

0.1-5.2

80% range

1.1-3.9

50% range

6.2

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
1.0+	78%
2.0+	59%
3.0+	40%
4.0+	23%
5.0+	11%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Justice Hill player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts