dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Devin Neal carries

Devin Neal: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · NO · NFL · baseline 6.3/game (2025, 9 games)
5.5
Median
0.9-13.0
80% range
2.6-8.7
50% range
16.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.95.513.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+80%
4.0+63%
6.0+45%
8.0+28%
10.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Devin Neal player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts