dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tommy DeVito completions

Tommy DeVito: completionsFITTED MODEL

QB · NE · NFL · baseline 13/game (2023, 9 games)
13
Median
0-23
80% range
7-20
50% range
27
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

01323
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

completionsProbability
5+78%
10+64%
15+42%
20+24%
25+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 562 QB completions games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tommy DeVito player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts