dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Gus Edwards carries

Gus Edwards: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 9.2/game (2024, 11 games)
8.7
Median
1.7-17.1
80% range
5.0-12.9
50% range
19.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.78.717.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
4.0+81%
6.0+68%
8.0+54%
10.0+41%
12.0+30%
14.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Gus Edwards player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts