dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tyrone Tracy carries

Tyrone Tracy: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · NYG · NFL · baseline 11.7/game (2025, 15 games)
11.2
Median
4.3-19.7
80% range
7.5-15.4
50% range
22.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

4.311.219.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
6.0+83%
8.0+72%
10.0+58%
12.0+45%
14.0+33%
16.0+22%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tyrone Tracy player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts