dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Evan Engram targets

Evan Engram: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · DEN · NFL · baseline 4.8/game (2025, 16 games)
4.2
Median
1.2-9.0
80% range
2.7-6.6
50% range
10.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.24.29.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+83%
4.0+55%
6.0+31%
8.0+15%
10.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Evan Engram player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts