dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Drew Lock rushing yards

Drew Lock: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · SEA · NFL · baseline 19/game (2024, 7 games)
12
Median
2-46
80% range
6-28
50% range
56
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

21246
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
10+59%
20+36%
30+23%
40+14%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 278 QB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Drew Lock player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts