dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Drew Lock passing yards

Drew Lock: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · SEA · NFL · baseline 153/game (2024, 7 games)
165
Median
10-271
80% range
80-223
50% range
306
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

10165271
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+79%
100+72%
150+57%
200+34%
250+16%
300+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Drew Lock player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts