dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Drew Lock pass attempts

Drew Lock: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · SEA · NFL · baseline 26/game (2024, 7 games)
28
Median
5-41
80% range
17-35
50% range
45
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

52841
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
15+79%
20+70%
25+58%
30+42%
35+26%
40+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Drew Lock player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts