dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Justin Fields carries

Justin Fields: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · KC · NFL · baseline 7.9/game (2025, 9 games)
7.8
Median
3.4-12.6
80% range
5.2-10.4
50% range
13.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.47.812.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+98%
4.0+86%
6.0+68%
8.0+46%
10.0+28%
12.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Justin Fields player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts