dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Parker Washington receptions

Parker Washington: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · JAX · NFL · baseline 3.6/game (2025, 16 games)
3.3
Median
1.0-6.6
80% range
2.1-5.0
50% range
8.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.03.36.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+90%
2.0+76%
3.0+56%
4.0+37%
5.0+25%
6.0+15%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Parker Washington player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts