dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Josh Reynolds targets

Josh Reynolds: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · FA · NFL · baseline 4.2/game (2025, 5 games)
3.9
Median
1.4-7.3
80% range
2.5-5.6
50% range
8.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.43.97.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+82%
4.0+47%
6.0+21%
8.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Josh Reynolds player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts