dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Austin Ekeler rushing yards

Austin Ekeler: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 31/game (2024, 12 games)
25
Median
5-67
80% range
12-42
50% range
78
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

52567
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
20+60%
40+28%
60+13%
80+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 977 RB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.6% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Austin Ekeler player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts