dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Theo Johnson receptions

Theo Johnson: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · NYG · NFL · baseline 3.0/game (2025, 15 games)
2.9
Median
0.9-5.9
80% range
1.6-4.4
50% range
6.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.92.95.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+87%
2.0+63%
3.0+43%
4.0+29%
5.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Theo Johnson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts