dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Emeka Egbuka receptions

Emeka Egbuka: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · TB · NFL · baseline 3.7/game (2025, 17 games)
3.4
Median
1.1-6.7
80% range
2.1-5.1
50% range
8.1
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.13.46.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+91%
2.0+77%
3.0+57%
4.0+39%
5.0+26%
6.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Emeka Egbuka player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts