dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Nick Chubb carries

Nick Chubb: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 8.1/game (2025, 15 games)
7.3
Median
2.7-14.8
80% range
4.4-10.5
50% range
18.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.77.314.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+94%
4.0+78%
6.0+62%
8.0+43%
10.0+27%
12.0+18%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Nick Chubb player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts