dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Will Levis rushing yards

Will Levis: rushing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · TEN · NFL · baseline 15/game (2024, 12 games)
9
Median
-2-42
80% range
2-24
50% range
52
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-2942
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

rushing yardsProbability
10+47%
20+30%
30+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 278 QB rushing yards games, our 80% range covered 77.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Will Levis player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts