dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Will Levis passing yards

Will Levis: passing yardsFITTED MODEL

QB · TEN · NFL · baseline 174/game (2024, 12 games)
186
Median
31-292
80% range
101-245
50% range
327
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

31186292
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

passing yardsProbability
50+85%
100+75%
150+65%
200+43%
250+23%
300+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 560 QB passing yards games, our 80% range covered 80.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Will Levis player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts