dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jeremy Ruckert receptions

Jeremy Ruckert: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · NYJ · NFL · baseline 1.6/game (2025, 14 games)
1.0
Median
0.0-3.8
80% range
0.8-2.3
50% range
4.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.03.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+53%
2.0+30%
3.0+17%
4.0+5%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jeremy Ruckert player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts