dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jalen McMillan targets

Jalen McMillan: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · TB · NFL · baseline 3.8/game (2025, 4 games)
3.4
Median
1.0-6.9
80% range
2.0-5.2
50% range
8.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.03.46.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+90%
2.0+75%
3.0+56%
4.0+38%
5.0+27%
6.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen McMillan player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts