dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Brashard Smith receiving yards

Brashard Smith: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

RB · KC · NFL · baseline 10/game (2025, 17 games)
6
Median
-3-29
80% range
-1-16
50% range
43
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

-3629
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
10+37%
20+20%
30+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 663 RB receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 76.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Brashard Smith player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts