dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Kyle Pitts targets

Kyle Pitts: targetsFITTED MODEL

TE · ATL · NFL · baseline 6.9/game (2025, 17 games)
6.6
Median
3.2-11.4
80% range
4.7-8.7
50% range
12.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.26.611.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+99%
4.0+82%
6.0+60%
8.0+32%
10.0+16%
12.0+8%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 732 TE targets games, our 80% range covered 84.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Kyle Pitts player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts