dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Trey Benson receptions

Trey Benson: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · ARI · NFL · baseline 3.2/game (2025, 4 games)
2.8
Median
1.3-5.7
80% range
2.0-4.2
50% range
6.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.32.85.7
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+93%
2.0+75%
3.0+47%
4.0+28%
5.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Trey Benson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts