dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Zach Ertz receptions

Zach Ertz: receptionsFITTED MODEL

TE · FA · NFL · baseline 3.8/game (2025, 13 games)
3.5
Median
1.3-7.1
80% range
2.3-4.9
50% range
8.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.33.57.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+94%
2.0+81%
3.0+59%
4.0+43%
5.0+24%
6.0+16%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 722 TE receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.3% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Zach Ertz player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts