dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jake Ferguson receiving yards

Jake Ferguson: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

TE · DAL · NFL · baseline 35/game (2025, 17 games)
30
Median
6-74
80% range
15-52
50% range
84
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

63074
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
20+66%
40+37%
60+19%
80+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 887 TE receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 83.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jake Ferguson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts