dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Isiah Pacheco carries

Isiah Pacheco: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · DET · NFL · baseline 9.1/game (2025, 13 games)
8.6
Median
1.6-17.0
80% range
4.9-12.8
50% range
19.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.68.617.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
4.0+80%
6.0+68%
8.0+54%
10.0+40%
12.0+29%
14.0+19%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Isiah Pacheco player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts