dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jimmy Garoppolo pass attempts

Jimmy Garoppolo: pass attemptsFITTED MODEL

QB · FA · NFL · baseline 24/game (2023, 7 games)
26
Median
3-39
80% range
16-33
50% range
44
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

32639
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pass attemptsProbability
15+76%
20+66%
25+53%
30+37%
35+19%
40+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 566 QB pass attempts games, our 80% range covered 79.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jimmy Garoppolo player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts