dfsforge / NFL forecasts / K.J. Osborn targets

K.J. Osborn: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · TEN · NFL · baseline 2.6/game (2024, 7 games)
2.1
Median
0.4-5.2
80% range
1.1-3.8
50% range
6.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.42.15.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+76%
2.0+53%
3.0+35%
4.0+22%
5.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: K.J. Osborn player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts