dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jalen Hurts carries

Jalen Hurts: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · PHI · NFL · baseline 6.6/game (2025, 16 games)
6.4
Median
2.0-11.3
80% range
3.9-9.0
50% range
12.4
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.06.411.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+90%
4.0+74%
6.0+55%
8.0+33%
10.0+18%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jalen Hurts player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts