dfsforge / NFL forecasts / TreVeyon Henderson carries

TreVeyon Henderson: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · NE · NFL · baseline 10.6/game (2025, 17 games)
10.1
Median
3.1-18.5
80% range
6.4-14.3
50% range
20.8
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.110.118.5
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
6.0+77%
8.0+64%
10.0+51%
12.0+38%
14.0+27%
16.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: TreVeyon Henderson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts