dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Hollywood Brown targets

Hollywood Brown: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · PHI · NFL · baseline 8.0/game (2023, 4 games)
7.9
Median
3.8-12.8
80% range
5.6-10.0
50% range
14.0
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.87.912.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+96%
4.0+89%
6.0+71%
8.0+49%
10.0+25%
12.0+13%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Hollywood Brown player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts