dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Hollywood Brown receiving yards

Hollywood Brown: receiving yardsFITTED MODEL

WR · PHI · NFL · baseline 60/game (2023, 4 games)
54
Median
17-110
80% range
32-81
50% range
128
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1754110
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receiving yardsProbability
25+83%
50+55%
75+30%
100+14%
125+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1868 WR receiving yards games, our 80% range covered 81.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2023 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Hollywood Brown player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts