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DK Metcalf: targetsFITTED MODEL

WR · PIT · NFL · baseline 6.6/game (2025, 15 games)
6.2
Median
2.7-11.1
80% range
4.3-8.5
50% range
12.6
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.76.211.1
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
2.0+95%
4.0+78%
6.0+53%
8.0+29%
10.0+15%
12.0+7%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: DK Metcalf player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts