dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Tez Johnson receptions

Tez Johnson: receptionsFITTED MODEL

WR · TB · NFL · baseline 1.9/game (2025, 15 games)
1.8
Median
0.0-4.0
80% range
0.6-2.8
50% range
4.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.01.84.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+67%
2.0+41%
3.0+21%
4.0+10%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1555 WR receptions games, our 80% range covered 82.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Tez Johnson player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts