dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jaylen Wright carries

Jaylen Wright: carriesFITTED MODEL

RB · MIA · NFL · baseline 7.8/game (2025, 9 games)
6.9
Median
2.4-14.4
80% range
4.0-10.1
50% range
17.9
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

2.46.914.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+92%
4.0+75%
6.0+59%
8.0+40%
10.0+26%
12.0+17%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 939 RB carries games, our 80% range covered 79.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jaylen Wright player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts