dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Jayden Daniels carries

Jayden Daniels: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · WAS · NFL · baseline 8.3/game (2025, 7 games)
8.2
Median
3.8-13.0
80% range
5.6-10.7
50% range
14.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

3.88.213.0
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
4.0+88%
6.0+72%
8.0+52%
10.0+31%
12.0+16%
14.0+6%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jayden Daniels player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts