dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Josh Jacobs receptions

Josh Jacobs: receptionsFITTED MODEL

RB · GB · NFL · baseline 2.4/game (2025, 15 games)
2.1
Median
0.0-4.9
80% range
0.9-3.4
50% range
5.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.02.14.9
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

receptionsProbability
1.0+71%
2.0+53%
3.0+32%
4.0+18%
5.0+9%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 637 RB receptions games, our 80% range covered 77.4% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Josh Jacobs player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts