dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Marcus Mariota carries

Marcus Mariota: carriesFITTED MODEL

QB · WAS · NFL · baseline 5.0/game (2025, 10 games)
4.9
Median
1.6-8.4
80% range
3.2-6.5
50% range
9.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

1.64.98.4
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

carriesProbability
2.0+87%
4.0+66%
6.0+32%
8.0+12%
10.0+4%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 218 QB carries games, our 80% range covered 86.7% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Marcus Mariota player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts