dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Ryan Flournoy targets

Ryan Flournoy: targetsFITTED MODEL

Name: Ryan Flournoy targets outcome distribution
Creator: dfsforge

WR · DAL · NFL · baseline 3.7/game (2025, 15 games)

3.4

Median

1.0-6.9

80% range

2.0-5.1

50% range

8.3

Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targets	Probability
1.0+	89%
2.0+	75%
3.0+	56%
4.0+	38%
5.0+	26%
6.0+	17%

Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 1739 WR targets games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).

Baseline is the 2025 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.

More: Ryan Flournoy player page · all NFL forecasts

Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts