dfsforge / NFL forecasts / Najee Harris targets

Najee Harris: targetsFITTED MODEL

RB · FA · NFL · baseline 2.8/game (2024, 17 games)
2.3
Median
0.3-5.3
80% range
1.2-4.1
50% range
6.3
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.32.35.3
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

targetsProbability
1.0+81%
2.0+61%
3.0+42%
4.0+27%
5.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 646 RB targets games, our 80% range covered 76.9% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2024 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Najee Harris player page · all NFL forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts