dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Reed Sheppard three-pointers

Reed Sheppard: three-pointersFITTED MODEL

G · HOU · NBA · baseline 2.8/game (2026, 92 games)
2.5
Median
0.3-5.2
80% range
1.4-4.0
50% range
6.2
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

0.32.55.2
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

three-pointersProbability
1.0+81%
2.0+63%
3.0+42%
4.0+24%
5.0+12%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 9454 G three-pointers games, our 80% range covered 80.2% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Reed Sheppard player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts