dfsforge / NBA forecasts / Mark Williams points

Mark Williams: pointsFITTED MODEL

C · PHX · NBA · baseline 11.5/game (2026, 61 games)
11.0
Median
5.0-18.8
80% range
7.6-15.0
50% range
20.7
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

5.011.018.8
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

pointsProbability
6.0+85%
8.0+72%
10.0+58%
12.0+43%
14.0+30%
16.0+20%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2610 C points games, our 80% range covered 75.0% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Mark Williams player page · all NBA forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts