dfsforge / MLB forecasts / Jacob Misiorowski strikeouts (pitcher)

Jacob Misiorowski: strikeouts (pitcher)FITTED MODEL

P · MIL · MLB · baseline 9.2/game (2026, 17 games)
9.1
Median
5.9-12.6
80% range
7.3-10.9
50% range
13.5
Ceiling (p95)

Outcome distribution

5.99.112.6
Shaded: the 80% range. Dashed lines: p10 / median / p90.

Chance of reaching

strikeouts (pitcher)Probability
4.0+98%
6.0+89%
8.0+67%
10.0+37%
12.0+14%
14.0+3%
Model receipt: on the held-out season, across 2331 P strikeouts (pitcher) games, our 80% range covered 81.1% of actual outcomes (target 80%).
Baseline is the 2026 per-game average; the distribution shape is learned per position and per production level from historical game logs. When the weekly slate model is live the baseline switches to the weekly line.
More: Jacob Misiorowski player page · all MLB forecasts
Forecasts are probability distributions from dfsforge's variance model, fitted on historical game logs and validated on a held-out season - the coverage number printed above is that holdout result, not a training-set fit. Research output, not advice. Open the app · Accuracy receipts